Master's thesis Carl Punkenburg

 

Scenarios for the turnaround in energy policy affecting potentials for Demand Side Management and intelligent control of building technology

Considering the turnaround in the German energy policy (The Energiewende), it is most likely that the share of unpredictable and fluctuating sources of energy generation (e.g. Wind and PV) will rise significantly. To ensure security of supply and an economical viable power generation, new large-scale energy storage solutions and flexible gas power plants are urgently needed. The activation of existing Demand Side Management (DSM) potentials can complement and partially replace a certain part of these expansions of capacities at low cost.

Accordingly, this work examines the development of potentials to couple the electric grid with the thermal demand of residential buildings using a DSM approach. A theoretical potential for load management in the household sector already exists at the present time. Widespread thermal storage capacities are easily and economically accessible. To assess the development of theoretical, technical, economic and practical potentials, key factors of the turnaround in energy policy are identified and analyzed with special focus on DSM. The analysis of these key factors is supported by a literature review. Based on different assumptions for the development of the factors, three alternative scenarios of the future energy sector are generated. In the final section, the effect of each scenario on possible DSM concepts linking the thermal demand of households to the electric grid is investigated.

The Scenario analysis shows that the demand for flexible electricity storages rises between 12 and 35 GW until 2030. In none of the considered scenarios this additional demand can be satisfied exclusively by expansions of large-scale energy storage plants. However, in all scenarios there a significant amount of electric capacity is installed, which couples the electric and thermal demand of the household sector.

For the activation of DSM potentials, the rollout of Smart Meters is a crucial requirement, which renders the implementation of a Smart Grid. Moreover, business models which provide incentives for individual users to apply DSM, have to be developed and merchandised. Dynamic tariffs are one possible solution for this problem. These tariffs pass a share of the profits gained by DSM to the consumers. The chances of load management to gain profit, and thus the economic potentials of DSM are mainly determined by volatilities of the wholesale electricity market and the participation in the German control power market.